Key Takeaways
• Traditional career ladders are dissolving as organisations flatten and AI reshapes work.
• Leadership development shifts toward influence, adaptability, and cross-functional learning rather than formal promotion.
• Individuals must take greater ownership of their growth, supported by organisational enablers and AI-based tools (e.g., Copilot Career Agent).
• Middle managers increasingly act as career coaches, helping employees navigate personalised development paths.
Core Message
With the decline of hierarchical ladders, leadership development becomes a shared responsibility: self-driven by employees, enabled by organisations, and augmented by AI — with middle managers serving as guides and catalysts.
How will organisations develop new leaders when there is no longer a clear career path up the hierarchy? Will personal development end up with individual employees managing their own or will the new role involve development planning? – Michael Staunton
The Great Flattening of Organisations
In recent years organisations have flattened their structures, and this has been termed the “Great flattening” based on factors including embracing agility, reducing cost, and raising efficiency. The application of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is likely to enhance this trend. Estimates for potential job losses through AI vary and Goldman Sachs predicted the loss of 300 million globally while the World Economic Forum predicted the creation of 170 million jobs and the elimination of 92 million suggesting a net gain of 78 million. McKinsey have predicted 2.4 million jobs reduced in the US and 12 million jobs altered. In addition, McKinsey projected 14 per cent of employees globally will change their career because of AI. Very different figures but indicating a seismic shift is ahead.
For some organisations the traditional career ladder is becoming limited or lost completely especially in white collar rather than blue collar jobs. This shift raises a critical question – how will organisations develop new leaders when there is no longer a traditional path up the hierarchy and how people will develop their careers. In the past organisations were able to create linear pathways and individuals were promoted through defined roles, where individuals gained experience and responsibility with each step. Individuals were able to navigate their futures often with support of their line managers and HR/OD/learning professionals. Today, in addition to AI many organisations operate in matrixed, project-based, or networked environments and digital culture where leadership is less about position and more about influence, collaboration, and adaptability.
Leadership Development without Hierarchical Careers
In this new landscape, personal development is a crucial issue for society, organisations and individuals. Employees are increasingly expected to take ownership of their personal growth, developing career paths that align with both their aspirations and the organisations evolving needs. This self directed approach encourages individuals to seek out stretch assignments, cross-functional projects, and learning opportunities that build leadership capability outside of formal promotion levels. While AI can potentially reduce, replace, and alter jobs it can also be part of the supporting career development. AI through tools like copilot from Microsoft can help individuals create personalised career development plans and “coach” individuals to develop skills and development and networking. It has been our position at Future Work Forum that one of the aims of AI and technology in the workplace is that they should be used to augment the individual capabilities rather than replace them.
Organisations should not step back from development planning. Instead, their role can be transforming, coaching/mentoring, and encouraging learning and curiosity. It may not be possible to create career paths, but organisations could become enablers providing frameworks, tools, and cultures that support continuous learning and emerging leaders. Development planning can become more personalised, often facilitated by HR, L&D, or Organisational Development professionals and AI applications (e.g. Copilot Career agent) who act as coaches and strategic partners. This may also become and argument in amending and retaining the role of middle managers in organisations. Middle managers may evolve their roles so that part of their new responsibilities might include career and talent coaching in organisations.
This may become more important as the role of leader in organisations evolves with a focus on building key capabilities such as emotional intelligence, systems thinking, and change agility. These skills may be developed through experiential learning, coaching and mentoring, networking, and developmental feedback. Organisations are also investing in talent marketplaces and internal talent platforms that help and support individuals in the organisation to explore roles and projects aligned with their strengths and interests.
The Emerging Role of Middle Managers as Career Coaches
Organisations and leadership capability are rapidly changing. Leadership in the age of social media and rapid digital transformation in society points us to more distributive democratic models of leadership rather than traditional “top-down” approaches. It is likely that individuals will need to take more responsibility to develop their own careers and at the same time organisations will facilitate that development. Middle managers may well have the capacity to become coaches and mentors and the connecting new technologies and tools may become a partnership between the individual, organisational change agents, and new technology. Tools like copilot and their “Career Coach” agents are AI powered personal assistants already capable of adding support for individuals to enhance their development.
For CEOs, Senior leaders and HR and Organisational & Learning Development professionals this could be a pivotal moment. The challenge is to design systems that support both autonomy and alignment enabling people to grow in ways that are meaningful to them and valuable to the organisation and indeed society itself.
